Charleroi enters this fixture with real momentum, having picked up three wins in their last five outings to stay well in the hunt for the Conference League playoff top spot. Conversely, OH Leuven find themselves disconnected at the bottom of the group, winless in five and lacking any meaningful late-season objectives.

The hosts' recent performances at the Stade du Pays de Charleroi have shown an organized defensive shape, notably shutting out group leaders Genk in a recent 2-0 victory. OH Leuven’s away form has been miserable throughout the campaign, conceding 32 goals on the road while frequently failing to impose themselves against motivated opposition.

The recent playoff meeting between these two sides in late April perfectly illustrated the gap in application, with Charleroi comfortably securing a 2-0 away win. That result established a clear psychological edge, proving Charleroi can dictate the tempo against Leuven even without their home crowd.

Leuven's backline problems are further complicated by injuries to key defensive personnel, including Noë Dussenne, leaving an already fragile setup exposed. They have leaked 57 goals across the season and consistently struggle to contain teams that attack with direct purpose.

With Charleroi desperately needing points to bridge the gap to Genk and Standard Liege, the motivation heavily favors the home side. Backing a straight Charleroi victory offers the most logical angle here, as Leuven's lack of stakes and poor defensive form make a resilient away performance highly unlikely.